WGNS folklore weather forecast

Dewayne Trail's 16th Annual 2007-2008 Folklore Winter Forecast
* Some snow, but mostly mild! *

Dewayne Trail has been intriguing listeners with his Annual Folklore Winter Forecast on WGNS since 1991. As you can see (picture above), he has an ear of corn in his left hand an a holly twig in the other.

When is the first killing frost in the fall?
Our first killing frost can occur from the second week of October through the first week of November, but the average date of the first killing frost in Rutherford County is October 22. An early killing frost is supposed to be a sign of bad winter weather.

When does winter begin?
Winter is considered by many to be that period from late October (when we have our first killing frost) through mid-March (when we begin to have longer, sunny days with warmer temperatures. Officially, our 2007 winter will begin on Saturday, December 22.

What does winter have in store?
When it comes to winter weather, we really should rely on the National Weather Service, regional weather centers, and local stations with dedicated workers who provide us with accurate, timely weather information.

What about Mother Nature?
Ordinary folks were making weather predictions long before we put weather specialists and their current network of sophisticated equipment together. Years ago, people relied on signs from “Mother Nature” to show the kind of weather she had in store for various seasons of the year.

Winter “Weather Lore”
Weather predictors have been handed down from one generation to another, and they seem as popular today as they were years ago. Some lore predictions seem to contradict one another, but weather patterns do differ from one area to another. The winter weather lore predictor which seems most popular, regardless of where people live, deals with the woolly worm, sometimes called a woolly bear or fuzzy bear in official references.

Woolly Worm lore?
Woolly worm lore suggests winter weather will be bad if:

- Woolly worms have heavy coats.

- Lots of them are seen crawling around.

- Their movement is unusually slow.

- You see them crawling before the first frost.

- Their black bands are wider than the rust-orange band which separates them.

Are you familiar with the woolly worm?
Actually, it’s the larval stage of an Isabella Tiger Moth. This is a beautiful moth with a wingspan of 4.0 to 5.5 centimeters. To see a woolly worm and the Isabella Tiger Moth it becomes, visit the following website: http://www.coldspringschool.org/Mill/wooly.html

What about snow for this winter?
Did you count the fogs in August? Weather lore suggests there will be as many snows during winter as there were fogs during the month August.

Will we have a cold winter?
Weather lore suggests colder winter weather if:

- Animals have thicker coats of hair or fur.

- Squirrels build their nests low in trees and gather nuts early.

- Ants build their mounds high.

- Larger numbers of spiders are seen in the fall.

- A heavy crop of berries are found on holly and dogwood trees.

- Birds are seen migrating early or huddling on the ground.

- You hear lots of rolling thunder during late fall.

- Chimney smoke flows toward the ground.

- The breastbone of a turkey cooked in the fall is purple or dark blue. (If it is white,

a mild winter is in store.)

What are other interesting lore predictors?

- Count the number of cricket chirps in a 14-second period and add 40; the number

will be within one degree of the actual air temperature.

- Three months after the first katydids begin to sing, the first killing frost will come.

- Check the seed of a persimmon after a fall frost. Cut into the seed from the narrow

side, and look at the kernel. If the kernel is shaped like a knife, look for a cold,

windy winter. If the kernel is shaped like a spoon, look for a wet, snowy winter.

If the kernel is shaped like a fork, look for a mild winter.

What about the winter of 2007?

Will we have a long, cold winter with a combination of wind, rain, snow, and periods of below freezing temperatures?

Look at some weather lore predictors.

- Very little mast (berries, nuts, etc.) on trees

- Few spider sightings

- Average corn husk thickness

- Late killing frost

- Few, fast moving woolly worms with an equal

black/orange band color

Weather Prediction for 2007
Although this winter will have periods with cold, below freezing temperatures, overall temperatures will be average or above normal. I believe . . . we’re going to have a mild winter!

Dewayne Trail is the Executive Director of the UT Rutherford County Agricultural Extension Service. This group regularly answers lawn and garden questions every Thursday morning (8:10-9:10am) and presents local farm news Saturday mornings (7:33am) over WGNS Talk Radio.

The Rutherford County Agricultural Extension Service is on John Rice Boulevard (just down from Sam's). This complex has a 300 person auditorium/meeting room with commercial kitchen, laboratory area to identify your trees, plants and critters.

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We shouldn't forget, however, that before we put weather specialists and their current network of sophisticated equipment together, ordinary folks were predicting the weather. Most of their predictions were based on signs given by nature; they felt no one could tell what was in store better tan Mother Nature.

We have many folklore predictions dealing with winter weather; some seem to be contradictory. Weather is different in different parts of the country, and folklore predictions were based on the particular part of the country in which you lived.

One of the more common folklore predictors for winter weather was the woolly worm, sometimes called a woolly bear, fuzzy bear, black-ended bear, or banded woolly bear. Although the woolly worm is common in the Rutherford County area, many residents have never seen and could not identify a woolly worm.

A woolly worm is the larval stage of an Isabella tiger moth. It grows from one to three inches in length and is found throu8ghout the United States. It is black at each end with a reddish brown band in the middle. The woolly worm goes through several larval stages before entering its pupal or winter cocoon stage. It emerges as a beautiful moth in the spring. Female moths lay eggs after late spring mating and, once their eggs hatch, the process starts over again.

Woolly Worm bad winter if:
    lhe had a heavy coat
    llots of them were crawling around
    ltheir movement was unusually slow
    lthe black band on their back was solid or very wide (more black than brown)
    lyou saw them crawling before the first frost.

Here's what our wooly worms look like.

They spin a cocoon and become a Tiger moth.

When it comes to the woolly worm, folklore says the winter will be bad if:
    *they have a heavy coat
    *lots of them are seen crawling around
    *their movement is unusually slow
    *the black band at each end is wide; the more black than reddish brown--the worse the winter
    *you see them crawling before the first frost

What does the woolly worm have to say about the upcoming winter? I haven't seen that many crawling around. The ones I've seen haven't been moving that slow. Their coats haven't been that thick, and they have about the same amount of brown and black color If folklore predictors about the woolly worm are correct, we should have a relatively MILD WINTER!

Predicting weather by animals:

Animals show winter will be bad if:
    Squirrels build their nests in lower tree branches.
    Squirrels gather and bury or hide nuts early.
    The hair and fur coats of dogs, horses, cows, squirrels and rabbits is thicker than usual.
    The fur on the bottom of rabbits' feet is thicker.
    The tail of a squirrel is bushy, winter will be cold and snowy.

Here are some of the "Winter Weather Predictors" used by our forefathers:

Animals shows winter will be bad if:
    lsquirrels build nest low in the trees.
    lsquirrels begin gathering nuts early.
    lthe fur on dogs, horses, cows, squirrels, rabbits, etc. is thicker than usual.
    lthe fur on the bottom of rabbits' feet is thicker.

Birds show winter will be bad if:
    lbirds huddle on the ground.
    lbirds eat berries early in the season.
    lif the breastbone of a cooked turkey in the Fall is
    ...this indicates a mild winter. If the turkey bone is purple or dark blue...a harsh winter is ahead.

Fire as a predictor show bad winter if:
lsmoke from a chimney flows toward or settles on the ground.

Insects foretell of bad winter if:
lthere are many spiders in the Fall.
lants build their nests high.

Plants show winter will be rough if:
    lthe crop of holly and dogwood berries is heavy.
    lthe husks on corn is thicker than usual.
    lleaves shed before changing color.
    lpersimmon: cut the inside seed in half (image of shovel indicates harsh winter with heavy and wet snow, fork is mild winter with light powdery snow, knife is icy winter with cutting winds)

Weather occurrences foretell a harsh winter if:
lif the first killing frost comes early (average date of killing frost is October 22nd).
lwhen lots of rolling thunder is heard during the late Fall.

What about PREDICTING SNOW:
    lthere is a chance of snow if it is cloudy and smoke rises.
    lit will snow within 26-days of smoke from a chimney goes down and settles on the ground.
    lcount the number of ground fogs in August. That is the number of snows for the Winter.

Other INTERESTING PREDICTORS:
    lthree-month after the first katydid sings, the first killing frost will happen.
    lthe first 12-days after Christmas indicate what each month in the next year will be like.
    lcows and deer stand facing WEST if bad weather is approaching. Good weather if they face EAST.